H-1B Lottery Odds: How Wage-Weighted Selection Works

Life in the USOct 18, 2026 · 8 min read

For years the H-1B lottery was the same for everyone: one person, one ticket, pure luck. That changed with a final rule DHS published on December 29, 2025, which took effect on February 27, 2026, in time for the FY2027 registration season. If you are on OPT, planning a STEM OPT extension, or an employer budgeting for next March, it helps to understand exactly how the new draw works and what it does to your odds. Our free H-1B Odds calculator runs the numbers in your browser; this guide explains what is behind them.

The H-1B cap in one paragraph

Congress caps new H-1B visas at 65,000 per fiscal year (the "regular cap"), plus 20,000 more for people with a master's or higher degree from a US institution (the "advanced degree exemption", usually called the master's cap). Demand is far higher than 85,000, so employers first submit a short online registration for each worker, USCIS selects enough registrations to fill the cap, and only selected registrations can be turned into full petitions. A fiscal year starts on October 1, so the FY2028 lottery happens in spring 2027 for jobs starting on or after October 1, 2027.

How weighted selection works

Entries by wage level

When the employer registers you, it must state the highest OEWS wage level that your offered salary equals or exceeds for your occupation (SOC code) and area of employment. OEWS is the Department of Labor's wage survey, and for each occupation and area it publishes four levels, from entry (I) to fully competent (IV). Under the rule, that level decides how many times you go into the selection pool:

A few details from the rule matter in practice:

• It is about the salary, not the title. A new graduate paid well above the local Level III figure for their occupation registers at Level III, even if the job is junior.
• Below Level I: if the offered wage is lower than OEWS Level I because the employer relies on another legitimate wage source, the registration is treated as Level I.
• Multiple locations: if you will work in several places, the employer must pick the lowest level your wage reaches across those locations. A salary range is judged by its lowest figure.
• The petition must back it up. If selected, the employer must show evidence of the wage level when filing, and USCIS may deny a later petition that changes the wage in an attempt to game the draw.

Still one chance per person

Since FY2025 the lottery has been beneficiary-centric: USCIS selects people (identified by passport), not registrations. If three employers register you, you are still one candidate. Weighting does not change that; it only changes how many entries that one candidate has in the pool.

Two rounds, both weighted

1. Regular cap round. Everyone, including master's holders, is drawn from one pool until USCIS has selected enough people for the 65,000 cap.
2. Master's cap round. US master's (or higher) holders who were not picked in round 1 go into a second draw for the 20,000 advanced-degree numbers.

The rule applies the weighting to both rounds. USCIS also selects more people than the cap numbers themselves, because some selected employers never file a petition.

The registration calendar

For FY2027, USCIS ran registration from noon Eastern on March 4 to 5:00 p.m. Eastern on March 19, 2026, announced on March 31 that selection was complete, and accepted cap petitions starting April 1, 2026. The fee was $215 per registration. USCIS announced on July 17, 2026 that it had reached the FY2027 cap. Expect a similar March window for FY2028 in 2027, but the exact dates are only set when USCIS announces them, so watch the official registration page.

What the odds look like

USCIS publishes registration and selection counts, not odds by wage level, so any per-level number is an estimate. Here is the recent history the calculator uses:

The FY2027 figure comes from a USCIS social-media post relayed by the law firm Fragomen; USCIS had not posted its full table as of October 2026. The September 2026 presidential proclamation reported that 66.1% of FY2027 registrants had a US master's degree, that Level I made up 17.8% of selections, and that Levels III and IV together made up 46.3%.

The calculator plugs those numbers into a standard model for weighted draws without replacement. With its default assumptions (211,600 registrants, 118,660 selected, a registrant mix of 29% Level I, 36% Level II, 22% Level III and 13% Level IV, fitted to the FY2027 selection profile), the estimated chances for one season are:

Under the old random draw with the same inputs, everyone would sit at about 43% (no master's) or 63% (master's). So weighting roughly cuts a Level I candidate's chance and raises a Level III or IV candidate's. These are model outputs, not official figures: the biggest unknown is how many people USCIS selects in FY2028, and if registrations rise again, every number above falls. Change the inputs in the calculator to see how sensitive they are.

Multiple seasons

If you can register in more than one season, your chance of at least one selection is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ, assuming the same odds each year. That is why STEM OPT matters: the 24-month extension can give a student up to three lottery seasons in total. At an estimated 42% per season, three tries come to about 80%.

The $100,000 payment: who it applies to

Proclamation 10973 (September 19, 2025) requires a $100,000 payment with new H-1B petitions filed on or after September 21, 2025 for workers who are outside the US without a valid H-1B visa. According to USCIS, it does not apply to a change of status, amendment or extension approved for someone already in the US, which is the usual route for F-1 students on OPT. The restriction has been extended to September 21, 2027.

As of October 2026, USCIS is not collecting the payment: on June 8, 2026 a federal court in Massachusetts (California v. Mullin) vacated USCIS's implementing guidance, and the First Circuit denied a stay on July 24, 2026. DHS says it will resume collection if that order is lifted. Separately, DHS proposed on August 24, 2026 a $103,265 fee for all cap-subject H-1B petitions, including change-of-status and master's-cap cases. That is only a proposal and is not in effect. Check the USCIS pages below before relying on either.

Cap-gap: how OPT bridges you to October 1

If you are selected while on OPT or STEM OPT, your employer can file a change-of-status petition from April 1. Once a timely cap petition is filed, the cap-gap rule extends your F-1 status and work authorization while the petition is pending. Since January 17, 2025, cap-gap runs until April 1 of the fiscal year (or the H-1B start date, if earlier), instead of the old September 30 cutoff. The petition has to be filed while you are still in F-1 status, which includes the 60-day grace period after OPT ends. Our OPT and STEM OPT timeline plots these dates for your own case.

What you can actually do

• Know your wage level. Look up the four levels for your SOC code and county in the DOL's FLC Data Center, and see where your offer falls. Our H-1B Salary Lookup shows what employers have filed for similar roles, and our guide to reading LCA salary data explains wage levels in more detail.
• Talk to your employer early. The level is set by the actual offered salary. A raise that crosses a level boundary before registration changes your entries, but it has to be a real offer you will be paid.
• Plan for more than one season. Keep your OPT and STEM OPT dates straight so you don't lose a season to a gap.
• Have a backup. Cap-exempt employers (such as universities and affiliated nonprofits) are not subject to the lottery.

The H-1B Odds calculator lets you pick your wage level and degree, adjust the registrant count and selection numbers, flip between weighted and random draws, and see your multi-year odds. It runs entirely in your browser and lists every source. If your situation changes after selection, for example a layoff, our Laid Off on a Visa? guide covers the 60-day grace period and your options.

FAQ

Does a master's degree still help under weighted selection?

Yes. US master's holders are in the regular round like everyone else, and if not picked they get a second, separate draw for the 20,000 master's numbers. Both rounds are weighted by wage level, so a master's holder at Level II has better estimated odds than a non-master's holder at the same level.

Can my employer just pick a higher wage level?

No. The level must be the highest OEWS level your offered wage actually equals or exceeds for your occupation and work location, and the employer certifies the registration under penalty of perjury. The petition must include evidence of the level, and USCIS can deny petitions that change the wage to game the selection.

Does registering with several employers increase my chances?

No. Selection has been by unique beneficiary since FY2025, so you count as one candidate no matter how many registrations are filed for you.

Do I have to pay the $100,000 fee if I change status from F-1 OPT?

According to USCIS, the payment applies to new petitions for workers outside the US without a valid H-1B visa, and not to a change of status approved inside the US. As of October 2026 USCIS is also not collecting it because of a court order. A separate proposed fee would cover all cap petitions but is not in effect.

When is the next H-1B lottery?

The FY2028 registration is expected in March 2027, with petitions filed from April 1, 2027 for jobs starting October 1, 2027. USCIS announces the exact window on its registration page shortly before it opens.

Sources

• Federal Register, Dec 29, 2025: Weighted Selection Process final rule (90 FR 60864)
• Federal Register, Feb 2, 2024: beneficiary-centric selection final rule (89 FR 7456)
• USCIS: H-1B Electronic Registration Process
• USCIS: FY 2027 H-1B initial registration selection completed
• USCIS: USCIS reaches FY 2027 H-1B cap
• USCIS: H-1B Specialty Occupations
• USCIS: Proclamation on Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers (status and court orders)
• Federal Register, Sept 23, 2026: proclamation extended to Sept 21, 2027
• USCIS: DHS proposes additional H-1B fee (proposed, not final)
• Federal Register, Dec 18, 2024: H-1B modernization rule (cap-gap to April 1)
• DOL OFLC Wage Search (FLC Data Center)

Last updated 2026-10-18. This guide is general information, not legal advice. Odds shown are model estimates, not official USCIS figures. Rules, fees and court orders change; confirm your situation with an immigration attorney and your school's DSO.